Have you heard the news? (Take Melatonin) and you have a 90% chance of dying from Heart Failure

Just for fun!
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As I sit here and watch our sleep brand die faster than the temperature is dropping in NY today, It makes me ponder responsible reporting by the American Heart Association and the media.

The study, which was neither peer-reviewed or published found a 90% increase in heart failure (4.6% vs. 2.7%) with those with an insomnia diagnosis in the 130K person study.

It wasn’t really a study. It was a medical record review utilizing the TriNetX Global Research Network and focusing in on Melatonin prescriptions for those with an Insomnia diagnosis. It was a global study, meaning it included persons in countries (LIKE THE US), where Melatonin is OTC.

Nobody knows how many of the 130K people were in countries where it’s OTC, and thus wouldn’t appear on their medical records. How many of these “patients” were in the US? Until last Monday, it’s estimated that 27% of Americans use Melatonin from time to time or all the time to help them go to sleep. I’d venture to imagine that US Citizens with Insomnia use more Melatonin per capita than those using it for clock reset, shift work, jet lag or occasional sleeplessness.

The US is a major component of TriNetX’s network, with 117,000,000 people’s medical records on file for research purposes.

This “study” (Not really) was presented today at the AHA’s (American Heart Association’s) annual conference. They believed so strongly in this landmark “study” that they devoted an entire 5 minutes to its presentation on their schedule.

Because the “study” wasn’t published, and most likely never will be, we will never know the truth. If 50K of the 130K were from the US (my bet is that number is low) that puts 13,500 at the very least in the control group (Melatonin users). Remember, the study looks at people with an Insomnia diagnosis on their chart (focus / control groups). You can move that 27% number to 50%, while having none of those patient’s melatonin useage noted in the data because it was OTC, not prescription.

What that means is the “study” becomes completely invalidated and the results would most likely flip to the positive. How do I know that you ask?

There have been 6 actual medical journal published / peer-reviewed studies over the last 9 years that concluded the exact opposite when it comes to Heart Health and Melatonin, INCLUDING on Heart Failure specifically.

The term “Fake News” has a new meaning for us. This brand was by far our most successful and now it’s in danger of failing thanks to junk-science. Even the “study’s” author called out the flaws but that didn’t stop the clickbait fake news.

Industry groups haven’t done a great job defending this $1.5B+ industry. One that was projected to reach $3B by 2029. We are hoping they do more as they are slow to react in detail, like I just did above with the facts. Regardless, that rebuttal will never make the headlines.

Over the last 28 years in the industry, I’ve seen this show before, and it never ends well. Us snake oil salesman always have a target on our backs thanks to all the bad actors in this business.

To any of you who saw this news over the last 8 days and stopped taking Melatonin that was helping you - I wouldn’t be too worried about it. It’s 100% bull ■■■■.

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The issue with these single compounds leading to the Rapture studies is they are so poorly built with 0 controls. If you read just the brief you will see how idiotic it is:

They don’t develop anything in the study - in those very large bolus of bi-peds - what was the cause of the insomnia? Not established

What were the underlying issues those bi-peds faced? For instance, usually co-morbidites are (for eg.) high CRP and Low IGF-1 levels. Non-existent.

What about other deficiencies and co-deficiencies? Eh, too hard.

This borders on the study being conducted by Dr. Riboflavin from the Ministry of Health and Human Services.

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Having said that any compound that a user depends on solely without addressing issues upwards in the chemical cascade will result in error. Ultimately.

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I won’t argue you with on this. That’s correct.

:rofl:

That’s our biggest fear at this point. That he’s going to come out and say the study is BS, which it is, but nobody trusts him, so that will make it even worse.

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It’s B.S. at like a 5th grade level of standards. It doesn’t take Captain Riboflavin to make an announcement of how he can’t pronounce melatonin so it must be bad. Who needs that? We don’t want an acetaminophen part deux to add confusion where so much confusion already exists.

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I’ve been taking Melatonin gummies, then time-release Melatonin for near a decade. I imagine many older semi-sedentary book dealers who have insomnia do as well.

Since haven’t died yet, despite several chronic diseases, will continue to take melatonin-since better than taking a so-called prescription “sleeping pill!” Son is a pharmacist and regularly interrogates both his father and myself on our drugs, both over-the counter and prescription.

I’’ll take his word that melatonin is safe… enough. He takes it, too, since insomnia unfortunately has run in our family for generations. Prior to being a pill-pusher, he earned advanced degrees in chemistry-and I trust him more than any “Fake News” He admits to fondness for his aged parents and plans, he assures us, keep us alive as long as possible.

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Thank you for this - I did see it yesterday. My mom takes 40mg of melatonin to sleep and it worried me a little (she definitely takes too much). I also give it to my disabled husband to make sure he stays asleep at night - he took it before his injury also. AND our daughter takes it.

Your info makes complete sense. The media does love to pounce on tiny things to make them seem more important/relevant than they are.

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I still take my melatonin, if needed. Not on a regular basis as I don’t always need it for sleep.

Sometimes I take pain meds and they knock me out pretty good. I might not wake up for 48 hours if I took melatonin along with that. I don’t want to run the risk of not waking up at all by taking too much stuff that knocks me out. Don’t want my wife enjoying my life insurance money this soon.

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I rolled my eyes hard when I read this, but I didn’t think of what it’d be doing to tank your best selling line.

Armchair devil’s advocate: I’d wager that, given the importance of sleep in overall health, it’s having INSOMNIA in the first place that causes the risk of heart failure, and the melatonin is just a treatment of a symptom, not the cause. Correlation doesn’t imply causation.

Personally, I can’t take melatonin or even diphenhydramine to sleep unless I want the worst cramping/restless legs known to mankind. Weird dopamine shenanigans, from what I’ve seen.

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Our thoughts …

Years back, when they said eggs were bad for you ( cholesterol), there was a big push to sell egg substitutes. Then a few years later, eggs weren’t so bad for you and eggs substitutes became a footnote on the grocery shelves.

So who is going to market what as a substitute for melatonin? (It’s a follow the money type thing)

Sugar substitutes come and go … yet sugar hasn’t gone anywhere.

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Magnesium and ashwagandha have both had their times in the spotlight recently for relaxation/sleep. I wouldn’t be surprised to see those surge as “non-melatonin” offerings in the near future.

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:up_arrow: :up_arrow: :up_arrow:

Exactly.

I’ll bet this probability was not mentioned. Duh

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Coffee and butter were going to do us in also. :man_facepalming:

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Correlation does not mean causation.

Did you know that 100% of people that die have H2O in their system?

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And yet, we let our young children play with dihydrogen monoxide! Insert pearl-clutching here.

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I never had any luck with Melatonin. 2 years ago I quit drinking alcohol altogether but had problems sleeping so I now use Delta-8 Gummies. The dyes and Corn syrup I’m sure are not good but they work really well for me especially when I’m having a lot of joint pain. They are a fraction of the price of an indica gummy from my local pot store.

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Well, TBH, the industry itself has lobbied very very hard to remain unregulated and away from the prying eyes of the FDA. There is a reason why the industry has a black eye because they have not invested in their own marketing for safety and efficacy. If the industry simply created or lobbied to create a regulatory agency/laboratory/scientific body, they would all but eliminate the issues of counterfeit, poor manufacturing, and be able to fight back against the giant label that essentially says “we can’t prove anything inside does anything and this should not be taken to do what you pray it might be doing”..

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Wife uses a cast iron skillet to knock me out. Guess I’m safe cause nothing enters my system.

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Yah that is an insane dose but aside from morning grogginess there are no other cascading effects at her age. I take between 0.5 (500mcg) and 1mg; on days of high stress I may go up to 1.3 mg. Because the minimum available dose sits at .3 and then titrates up to .5 and then 1 mg.

So if she’s fine, don’t stress.

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Because you have other upstream issues that need correcting. It takes a lot of ingredients to make the meal that is human health. Folks keep throwing single ingredients in thinking more will make it better, but it doesn’t. Additionally, that doesn’t account for absorption and synergies with other compounds that are imperative for each variable to “work.”

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