Yes, thank you, I understand this. Just looking at tea leaves. I apologize for not spelling it out better.
- US retailers ordering less inventory from international suppliers does not equate to substituting inventory/quantities from US-based suppliers. So we can suspect that retailers and Sellers aren’t stocking up as much as usual for Q425 and Q126, based on the significantly reduced carrier shipping.
- Fewer products available domestically during Q425 and Q126 (and probably longer) could mean fewer packages shipped internally in US. And shoppers can’t order from many countries (88?) at this time, while simultaneously are unlikely to order from overseas anyway due to exploding costs. So there won’t necessarily be other packages to cover the lost donestic traffic.
- This, combined with US consumer uncertainty, could lead to fewer packages shipped internally during Q425 and Q126
- Fewer packages shipped internally could mean (at a minimum) lost revenue and jobs for our internal packages carriers (because carriers will cut quality to cut their losses).
So while the industries are certainly different, they do have relevance to and reliance on each other.
These are just some guesses, and I will be happy and satisfied to be wrong. But as I said…
Consequences do indeed trickle down.