Amazon Just Lost Control of How People Buy.

Here’s a guy I follow sporadically who coaches Amazon sellers. In this video, he’s talking about the impact AI will have on sellers. He starts by stating the obvious to most of us here, that Amazon is bleeding sellers dry through ever-increasing fees. But then he demonstrates that Amazon’s stranglehold over ecommerce is collapsing quickly.

I post this because just yesterday, at Christmas dinner, my 35 year old daughter was talking about how she used AI (ChatGPT) to recommend a pillow. After a few questions and answers, she got a recommendation and then bought the recommended pillow from the manufacturers site. She said that it was the best pillow she’s ever had. She also said that she does almost all of her shopping via AI now (which she also uses heavily for her job).

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If we are talking about a pillow for sleeping, I would never buy online or based on reviews or AI.

I know what gives me the most comfort, how to recognize it, and what I should pay for the right product. I view a pillow as a highly personal product.

As for Amazon’s sales and market share, all speculation is occurring at a time when Amazon’s market share is falling. It has nowhere to go but down. There need be no reason other than increased competition, though we all can speculate about the effects of various Amazon strategies on its results.

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I’m thinking that scene with a full body pillow would have quickly become X rated.

Just saying… :rofl: :smiling_face_with_horns:

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The problem with AI is that it will take a single Facebook discussion, as present it as “fact”.

Eventually, people will pick up on this.

That is what it just did when I asked ChatGPT “What’s the best?” in my product niche. While my product was the one touted as “best”, that’s because it serves a very narrow niche, and has been around far longer than any of the pathetic attempts at knock-offs, which come and go from time to time.

Worse yet, there’s only so much “online” that is not aggressively pay-walled (journals) or incomplete (Google Books), so it was only a matter of time until AIs started scraping the web only to be misled by the inaccurate output of other AIs. - It’s going to get very messy.

https://futurism.com/ai-models-falling-apart

And it’s Artificial IGNORANCE – hear me out on this…

I’ve worked with “AI” since the 70s. Back then, we coded in PROLOG, and called it “expert systems” “robotics”, and “neural networks”. But the current “AIs” are really nothing more than sophisticated guessing programs, a search engine that guesses how to move the CONVERSATION along, without any regard for things like checking multiple sources to verify a fact.

“Large Language Models” are inherently a dead end, as they depend upon a large mass of “information”, which inevitably will include the internet, which has become a swamp of MISinformation. The AI becomes a font of misinformation, or agrees with depressed people, suggesting suicide, or states that the Nazis had the right idea. This is because there is no “mind” at all in an AI, just a set of programs that guess what the NEXT word it should say or type should be to make a “valid sentence”. It is linguistically “correct” speech, but it is the empty-headed “thought” made up of scraps found on a trash heap of Reddit posts, newspaper reports, Myspace pages, fiction books, whatever the AI company could shovel into the maw of its “AI” as “training data”.

As the AIs generate more “content” on the internet, future AIs get “polluted” by being fed the output of prior AIs, turbo-charging the “hallucinations”, which is not that at all. It is just the ultimate form of “Garbage In, Garbage Out” a truism that has stuck with us since the Control Data Cyber 60 series of batch-run FORTRAN-on punchcard engines.

But most of the massive investment in GPUs, cooling for GPUs, and investment capital in the “intellectual property” of the LLMs has been undercut by “DeepSeek”, which has been open-sourced, and has shown to require far fewer GPUs, and far less energy to get to the same place as ChatGPT and the other hardware-intensive options.

The “gold rush” was prompted by platforms blowing large amounts of cash on “acquiring their own LLM AI”, which push valuations into bubble territory. Everyone thought that they HAD to add an “AI” to their social media platform offering, or be left behind. This is when a wise man plans to short the stocks of the AI companies, and Nvidia, to boot. If it walks like a bubble, and quacks like a bubble…

There are still neural networks, and they do narrow jobs incredibly well, with the drawback that they do not reveal their inner workings well, and may sometimes “cheat”, rather than do the work expected. (One example was an AI trained to differ between huskies, coyotes, and wolves was relying more on the photo backgrounds than the images of the canines, but it gave good results ON THE TRAINING DATA.)

I do not use ANY AI at all. I turn it off in my google searches, by replacing the standard google search engine URL with “ {google:baseURL}/search?udm=14&q=%s ” (without the quotes!) you can google this search string to find out how to implement this in your web browser of choice.
The entire soap opera of “AIs taking over” was nothing but a PR stunt to pump up the share price of the AI companies. For AI to “take over”, it would have to be good, and it isn’t good at all. But AI will be waved around to scare employees into longer hours, smaller raises, and worse conditions, as the AI need not be very good to be a credible THREAT to the average employee.

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Your experience with AI is predictable.

I love the optimistic and unrealistic predictions for the role of LLMs in medical diagnosis.

IBM had announced a major effort to use its Watson on masses of data from a major medical center to speed diagnosis. The project was quietly shelved because the bulk of the validated data was not online and would need to be brought online at great cost.

They would not and could not generate reliable results using data which was already available online.

The data center gold rush is likely to be short-lived. Some innovator is likely to design a set of algorithms which are more efficient than those which are being used by the current technology.

In many ways, Ray Kurzweil’s reading machine and its development might parallel what is happening in the AI boom. Ray was an innovator who has contributed a lot to technology. The flat bed scanner was an innovation tied to the reading machine which has been longer lasting and of greater effect.

He envisioned building the reading machine around a Data General Nova minicomputer. They got quite far along in the project before they discovered that the Nova did not have the required horsepower for the task.

Ever resourceful, Ray had a clone of the Nova built using ECL logic, the fastest and most power hungry technology available.

Today most of us have enough computer power on our desktops and smartphones to perform the functions of the reading machine. And ti would not be impossible that his algorithms have been replaced.

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I think the point has been missed here. The original post was not about how good AI is but rather how good the buying public perceives AI to be. In effect, once consumers are using AI (sorry, LLM) as their shopping guide, Amazon ads and other traditional advertising will become even less effective than they are today. Furthermore, assuming that AI is guiding consumers to manufacturers’ websites for the better pricing, the value proposition for Amazon sellers - already diminishing through Amazon’s ever-increasing fees - will plummet. And all of this is likely to happen very quickly.

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And it has been since the day it was invented. Yes, many of us remember when they did not have advertising capability. Advertising has been becoming obsolete over time. My feeling it is not linear. It is falling on the downward side of the bell curve. Not unlike product life cycles.

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