Looking at the Jobs Recession [no quotes as it is a fact] of the current Administration, may be a major factor in a decrease in GDP, or probably more correct to say, a GDP that would otherwise have grown far more, if millions of hard workers were not deported or in detention centers.
I find this statement bizarre. Nothing new under the sun since the beginning of time, that management mades mistakes. Forecasting a companies growth and expansion, holding employees that are costly to train, all the while not knowing if a housing crisis, a war, a pandemic, a 180 degree reversal in tariffs, or as is more likely, a change in consumer sentiment towards ones product or service, or a competitors better widget, will occur is simply not possible.
The same for AI. Who has the tin-foil hat to know exactly how it will pan out. We “read” that it will be very disruptive, but AI implementation industry by industry, some major, some minor, it will surely be different when it comes to increased productivity. Management ultimately is required to forecast and analyze their specific company from top to bottom, and decide how it will affect productivity (less employee per the topic). Those that are laggards may win the race (Apple may be one), and those at the forefront (Nvidia, Palantir may win). Or neither? or Both?
There has never been a “jobs recession” and there will not be now.
A recession has a definition, two quarters of negative GDP growth.
The unemployment rate is not bad enough to meet the historical levels which might be associated with a depression and not likely to reach them, unless the FED raises interest rates.
Corporate earnings are likely to increase for most of the companies which are not chasing the fortunes to be made from AI.
I view the big headline layoffs as a positive for the economy, and the sales and revenue estimates for most public companies as a positive.
We are in a period when there are no breakthrough products or services to stimulate the economy, and many people did not live through or do not remember life without breakthroughs. AI is not yet a breakthrough - might become one, might be a sinkhole.
The economy stabilizes and established companies prosper. The biggest risk to the economy would be the stock market recognizing that today’s stock prices do not justify the earnings multiples they have.
Fortunately, the stock market is a casino, and traders have money and have to trade. Reality is not a path for speculators to profit. Wars on the other hand, have always been times when huge profits have been made.
Oct - Dec 2025 Quarter - Nonfarm Payroll was down 149,000 jobs
Jan - Feb 2026 Quarter - Nonfarm Payroll was up 34,000 jobs
Total 5 months is down 115,000
Guess March will tell if we are in a “Job Recession”
FYI - in 2024
Oct - Dec 2024 Quarter - Nonfarm Payroll was up 627,000 jobs
Jan - Feb 2024 Quarter - Nonfarm Payroll was up 902,000 jobs
Total 6 months was up 1,529,000