Shopping Behaviour In a Recession

[Tried_Tested]

Tried finding stats of Shopping Behavior during a Recession and happened on this:

Shopping Behaviour In a Recession

I think much of this is just made up stats, but the bottom line is people spend less during a recession. Imagine that.

If anyone has other stats besides this, would love to brief a few especially as to how it relates to my product portfolio - I would imagine the link in this post is related to food but Luxury Items like LV and Gucci notice an uptick during a recession IIRC from prior readings? But here it would seem different

After a slowdown, luxury brands are changing course

[papy]

Keep doing what you’re doing. Give consumers something to be excited about. Be watchful for trends.

What can Americans expect for the economy in 2024?

Consumer spending rose at a 3.6% annual rate from July through September in 2023, and shoppers continued to open their wallets for the holidays despite the fact that many Americans say they’re spending more than they earn. That aligns with 2023 data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York that shows consumers owe a record $986 billion in credit card debt, up 17% from 2022.

“The paradox is everyone expects the Fed to cut, but they’re only going to do so unless conditions turn recessionary. Currently, they are not,” said David, who emphasized the correlation between robust consumer spending and the economy’s strength.

“We should all thank our lucky stars that the American people continue to spend, because our economy is two-thirds consumer spending … that’s what’s driving this train, that’s what’s keeping the jobs market afloat, that’s what’s keeping companies from mass layoffs.”

Even if consumers rein in spending and the economy slips into a recession, he said, there’s a good chance it will be mild.

“We’re entering 2024 much like we entered 2023. Everyone was fearful of a recession. People think a recession will happen, but all recessions aren’t created equal. We could see a downturn. We don’t have to see a repeat of 2020 or 2008, which were pretty extreme Black Swan events that really created tough economic conditions. So we could see a softening without a collapse in economic activity.”

[dwat0870]

@papy

Consumer spending rose at a 3.6% annual rate from July through September in 2023, and shoppers continued to open their wallets for the holidays

And inflation was a considerably higher number for much of 2023. We won’t know the final result until the 11th but here were the month to month from https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/.

Any way you slice it UNIT SALES most likely declined so there was no ‘progress’ made.

[papy]

From the same CBS article:

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in December hinted at interest rate cuts in 2024 as inflation cools. That spark of hope has led some economists to speculate on not if, but when those rate cuts may begin. Despite a strong December jobs report, a potential inflation risk if the economy continues to run hot, many experts remain optimistic that the central bank will lower rates this year.

Still, David cautioned that there may be many bumps ahead for the economy on the road to possible interest rate cuts.

“So the thing here that everybody needs to keep in mind is inflation has been tamed, the preferred gauge the Fed watches is floating around the Fed’s target of 2%, but the risks are still there, and that’s particularly because consumers have continued to open up their wallets and add to their credit card debt,” he said.

[GGX]

One thing recessions do really well is kill off weak and poorly run businesses.

[joebcrafts]

They better not lower the rate as much as the expected 0.75
Interest rates should not have been near 0 for a decade.
4.5% - 5% is an appropriate “standard” level. If they hadn’t dropped below that so often and so far in the last 30 years corporations/people wouldn’t expect “free money”.

[GGX]

“Cheap” money is actually good for investment and economic growth, free money causes the problems that we’ve seen the last few years though. When rates are 0 people think that investing into a company that promises to show a return on investment in a decade is a good deal.

[Thelunatick]

But but we are not in a recession…

The price of things just went up so much people don’t have extra spending cash. Just don’t use the “r” word.

[joebcrafts]

@GGX

“Cheap” money is actually good for investment and economic growth

True and 4.5% or so is “cheap” but not “free”.

I didn’t take the graph back to the “expensive” 8% to “ludicrous” 17% wild rollercoaster decades.

[GGX]

Currently we are not, but there’s fears of one, and it’s worth thinking about for business owners how they’ll respond to a recession. If you have no plan and it does happen you’ll be in for a world of hurt

[dwat0870]

@joebcrafts

I didn’t take the graph back to the “expensive” 8% to “ludicrous” 17% wild rollercoaster decades.

The good old days. When we bought our house the construction loan was 17% which I could afford. There were so few houses being built we were done and ready to move in in 90 days.

My local “friendly” bank that I had dealt with for years jumped the permanent financing to 21% which I could NOT afford. They gave me 30 days to find an alternative.

Lomas and Nettleton had negative amortization loans available. I went further into debt every year for the first couple years but the rate was tied to the treasury rates and the loan cost went down for something like 15 or 20 straight years.

It paid off to be in the investment business AND be a stock trader that did technical trading using charts. It did not take a genius to see that 21% was not a sustainable rate.

Current rates are pretty close to the historic averages. I can’t find my better chart but this one from bigtrends will do. The danger is that the downtrend line has been broken on this chart but it’s a few years old.

This one would indicate rates for mortgages could stick around the 7-8% area for quite a while.

[Tried_Tested]

Right so anything higher than 5% at current prices is untenable. The days of yore when Interest rates were high the price of goods/homes was within relative range to peoples’ incomes. One could rent a house on a grocery store stocking job salary. Those days are gone, at least in the largest GDP states.

[papy]

@GGX

it’s worth thinking about for business owners how they’ll respond to a recession.

Agree, and I believe that’s the purpose here of @Tried_Tested topic.

@Tried_Tested

the bottom line is people spend less during a recession

Then the question for all ecomm businesses is:

What are you doing right now, today, so that IF a recession lands, your Buyers will spend their less-money with you, and your business survives?

Some thoughts for all SellersAskSellers members

1. How are you building customer relationships, brand awareness, and social trust?
2. How are you diversifying sales platforms while maximizing efficiency?
3. How are you evaluating your business structure and practices, products, and marketing, to be able to respond nimbly (= quickly + strategically + effectively) to both evolving and sudden pivots in shopper behavior?
4. How are you building your personal skill set to manage and support your business during a recession, while maintaining your business goals and your personal work-life boundaries?
5. How have you prepared for worst-case scenarios?

[Thelunatick]

[quote=“GGX, post:11, topic:3110”]

@GGX

Currently we are not, but there’s fears of one,

I guess my sarcasm did not go through. I thought my " Just don’t use the “r” word." was a giveaway.

The way I define our current situation. Wall street is not in a recession, Main street is. Your middle class and below are in a serious money crunch. These are the people that spend money on businesses like ours.

@Tried_Tested

goods/homes was within relative range to peoples’ incomes

I just did the math for my wife showing if we sold our house and bought a new one managing to keep our mortgage the same amount we couldn’t afford it.

I locked in at 3.5 % I showed her our payment would almost double at current rates.

[Dogtamer]

@Thelunatick

But but we are not in a recession…

The price of things just went up so much people don’t have extra spending cash.

Just don’t use the “r” word.

@Thelunatick

I guess my sarcasm did not go through. I thought my " Just don’t use the “r” word." was a giveaway.
…

There’s a reason why someone cast the ‘laughing’ emoji as a “like.”

For my own part, the ‘repeated buts’ was a dead giveaway of your likely intent - and yet another reminder of just why The `Net really needs ‘[[sarcasm ON]] [[/sarcasm OFF]]’ tags.

[papy]

FRIENDLY MOD REMINDER: We are not going to debate whether or not we are currently in a recession, why, or why not, in this topic. At this time, it is politicized, and politics, political dog whistles, political insults, and political debate are all prohibited on SellersAskSellers.

You have other online spaces for that.

Thank you for respecting the SellersAskSellers community, mission, and your fellow members by maintaining our Community Expectations.

[Tried_Tested]

I think the self restraint shown here deserves a