The magic formula behind the AHR number

Some of us compared notes via messaging and think we’ve discovered the magic formula to Amazon’s AHR number.

The way for the average person to calculate (and predict) their AHR score is -

  • Set the date range to 180 days in Manage Orders
  • Click the Sent tab
  • Important: Your AHR number includes both FBM and FBA orders (kinda dumb, but who’s judging…) so if you do both, take the numbers for both methods and add them together.
  • Divide the total number of Sent orders by 200. Drop any remainder (the number after the decimal point). Do not round. Simply drop anything after the decimal. 25.01 and 25.99 would both become “25”.
  • Multiply this whole number by 4. These are the points you’ve earned by your sales volume.
  • Add these points to 200 (the base score) to get your AHR number before subtracting any infraction points. Any difference between the number you come up with and what Amazon shows is due to points lost for violations.

I believe this theory is correct, and if so, I’m about to earn my next 4 points. This will be a good test to confirm it.

Here’s where I stand.
Current AHR: 284
Orders ‘Sent’ in last 180 days: 4384
Total orders (4384) / 200 = 21.92
Drop the remainder = 21
21 x 4 = 84 volume points.
84 + 200 = 284 (matches my current AHR on Amazon, since I have no counting violations)

As soon as I hit 4400 orders (hopefully tomorrow?), my multiplier will reach 22 (4400 / 200) and my AHR should increase to 288.

Stay tuned for confirmation…

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Is the formula in doubt? I thought it was clearly explained when the metric was rolled out exactly how it was calculated.

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I just find it disappointing that lower volume sellers have absolutely NO way of of benefiting from having a perfect score since you have to have a score of 250 for 6 months or more and maintain it to get Account Health Assurance. We have never had any negatives on our account but being a small company with not that many products and our products are seasonal means we are unlikely to ever meet these numbers. Even if we meet them during our busy season, That doesn’t last long enough for us to get any advantage from it since we would loose it before the next busy season.

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Although I understood the formula in theory, what wasn’t at all clear to me and to some others, is where they got the “number of orders” number from.

In other words, if I take my “number” of orders and divide by 200 then multiply by 4, where do I get the ‘number of orders’ starting figure from?

Most other metrics are based on the order date, but this one seems based on the shipping date. It also wasn’t clear where you could go to easily determine your starting number (of shipped orders). As it turns out, if my reasoning is right, Amazon is using the number that shows as ‘Sent’ within Manage Orders. I sure didn’t know that before…

I’m not 100% sure I know it now either, but we’ll see what happens as I ship things today, and the orders from 180 days ago fall off. I want to be able to predict exactly what my number will be at any given time, and how it changes as things occur.

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lower volume sellers have absolutely NO way of of benefiting from having a perfect score

You may be putting too much stock in the Account Health Assurance nonsense. I intentionally won’t quality even once my number stays above 250 for 6 months, because one of the requirements is that you have an emergency contact number on file. I intentionally did not give Amazon my phone number because if I did, they would use it, for all sorts of things that are NOT emergencies.

Their stupid Account Health team has called me a few times even without the number (pulling it from another part of my account, no doubt) to try and scare me into thinking I need to take some sort of action. I ignore the calls, but they still annoy me. I have no intention of encouraging Amazon to call me even more.

We have never had any negatives on our account

Unless you drop significantly below 200, and don’t take corrective action, you won’t be suspended, which is the same benefit (not being suspended) that people with the AH Assurance have. So why should you care?

If you rarely or never get violations, then having it would offer you no extra benefit at all. :woman_shrugging:

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I suppose it doesn’t make that much of a difference in our case.

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I suppose it doesn’t make that much of a difference in our case

And that’s a very good thing. :+1: :smile:

You never want to have to rely on Amazon to keep your account out of trouble. :laughing:

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Of course.
And of course it is all just the Shake head at the whole concept in the first place. The people who probably need the protection the most (for the rare blip of an issue because they are low volume) can’t get the protection because they are low volume. And the people who don’t really need the protection because they are high volume and the rare random issue isn’t likely to cause a blip on their metrics.
So who is this really supposed to incentivize to get them to keep their metrics good? Don’t people already have plenty of reason to keep their metrics good?
Seems like the same developer kids who don’t have a project for their internship let loose on another portion of seller central to test their skills?

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I assumed it was shipped orders so that Amazon would not count cancelled orders in this metric. After all the idea is to give credit for successful orders. To be honest, I hadn’t given it all that much thought. The difference in my score between my total orders vs shipped orders for a given date period is so negligible that it makes no difference to me.

The attention to the details and minutia of how everything works is one of the reasons I respect and appreciate the people here. It provides so much insight and depth into the inner failings workings of Amazon that I don’t have the patience to work out.

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Here’s an update on how my Account Health has played out.

When I first created this topic, I had 4384 sent orders, and needed 16 more to reach the threshold to gain my next 4 points. I have now reached that point, and my AHR score increased to 288, so for anyone who wants to monitor or predict their own future AHR score, the above formula will let you do it.

image

I learned a few additional things in this process.

  • The AHR score does not update immediately. As I shipped more orders during the day, I exceeded the 4400 threshold but my score did not change.

The chart of your past 180 day performance updates at midnight UTC time (5 pm Pacific) to reflect the shifting forward of the date range.

Prior to the update yesterday, the last score on my AHR chart was from 3/14. After 5 pm, a new score for 3/15 appeared.
image

Interesting note. The 3/15 score reflects all orders through 3/14. Since I’m in the Pacific time zone, when the update occurred and the date range shifted to include 3/14, there were still 7 more hours of 3/14 remaining. So the score at the time, only reflected a partial day’s worth of orders from 3/14.

This can explain why your numbers sometimes aren’t what you expect. An example may help -
The current date range (at 4:30 pm Pacific time, which is 11:30 pm UTC) for the total order count is 9/16 - 3/15. In half an hour, it will become ‘tomorrow’ in UTC time and the date range will shift forward to cover 9/17 - 3/16.

At this time, all orders from 9/16 will fall off, and new orders from 3/16 (which hasn’t started yet, so there won’t be any) will get added in. This means that your total order count will be temporarily based on 179 days, not 180. As 3/16 rolls around, and orders come in and get shipped, then the number will slowly work its way back up to reflect a full 180 days.

Somewhere during this process, Amazon takes a snapshot of your total order count and uses this to calculate your AHR score for the day. I had expected my number to increase to 288 yesterday, because I had over 4400 (4403, actually) at the 5 pm update time. But when the date range shifted forward, I lost 10 orders from the oldest date falling off, but got zero orders added back in, because the ‘newest’ date being counted hadn’t started yet, so my total order count dropped to 4393 and my AHR stayed at 284.

I processed additional orders last night, and sometime after I did that, the system caught up and factored those into my total order count, which then caused my AHR to increase to 288 at some time today.

I won’t be able to pinpoint the exact time of day it happened until the next time I earn 4 more points, which should be in another 9 days or so.

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So based on the formula sellers need average 223 a day for 180 days to get to 1000.
223 x 180 = 40140
40140 / 200 = 200.70
200 x 4 = 800
800 + 200 = 1000

Or is my math wrong :melting_face:

So anyone not at that rate is never getting there.

It is unfair to perfect small sellers.

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Why? As long as a seller has the volume to reach the minimum value (250?) to trigger the protections, what does a higher number matter other than bragging about how much sales volume I have?

Let’s say I am a seller at 300 AHR. I have triggered the protections offered by this program, so if anything happens Amazon should contact me before shutting me down. I am equally as protected as someone with 1000 AHR.

The only advantage of a higher number is that I have a larger cushion to absorb account dings that lower the score. However, I am working under the assumption that a larger volume of sales and items offered also exposes me to increased risks, and therefore the smaller seller barely hitting the minimum sales would have a commensurately smaller catalog and risk exposure. This would really only matter to sellers right on the edge, where even one or two dings would drop them below the minimum threshold.

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Yes this is a major benefit.
You can take multiple hits without being at risk. This also give more time to fight many false violations without worrying if is this the day I get suspended.

Being notified is great but I’m sure there is a ticking clock to get everything resolved.
And many times the support agents/AI bots do not feel your sense of urgency.

We woke up to 15 one day out of nowhere which took time, but knowing I had another 600 cushion was nice to have.

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The protection is that Amazon promises to notify you and work with you to resolve the issues before suspending you. I have not seen any evidence that a higher AHR results in more time allowed to resolve those issues. I was under the impression that once an issue was serious enough that Amazon notified you about the problem, you had to resolve that problem in whatever time was allotted or your account would be at risk, whether you had any additional AHR buffer or not.

Additionally, the account dings that lower your AHR do not seem to be the same issues that could trigger an account suspension. Product Condition Customer Complaints, for example, seem to lower my score, but do not threaten my account, at least not on their own. I am not clear on what issues exactly would trigger a suspension that the AHR protects us from. It seems that whatever issues threaten our account also lower our score, but not every issue that lowers our score threatens our account.

Bingo – I am stuck at 240…and have been busting my butt for a one person show.

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This is an interesting discussion, but @Sundance, I disagree. I don’t think there’s much, if any benefit to the AHR Assurance program.

Amazon says -

With Account Health Assurance, we won’t deactivate your selling account as long as you work with us to resolve any issues.

This implies that there might be a case where you would otherwise get deactivated, and Amazon wants you to have AHA in order to avoid that.

I call BS. (I’d type it out but the forum software blocked me. :laughing: )

I think Amazon’s insinuation is just a scare tactic.

First, violations don’t drain points from your account immediately. You are given a few days to ‘address’ the violations. If you address them, they disappear.

Amazon says ‘we won’t deactivate your selling account as long as you work with us to resolve any issues’. In what way is that any different than simply addressing the violations to make them go away??? The process - to me - sounds exactly the same, which means that AHA is worth absolutely nothing. :woman_shrugging:

Even if you did buy that it had value, you would have to anticipate doing something so wrong that you suddenly lost more (probably a lot more) than 50 points in one fell swoop. If you were that kind of seller, you probably wouldn’t have ever reached 250 in the first place.

My account lived perpetually ‘at risk’ in the days before the new AHR. I never gave it much thought, as every time Amazon told me I was doing something wrong, it was a BOT fk-up, and not a seller mistake. I didn’t feel it was a good use of time to continually ‘address’ stuff Amazon did wrong, so I just ignored it.

When I first got my AHR number, I was at a big, fat, red “12”. :astonished:
But not suspended. I clicked all the boxes to tell Amazon I wouldn’t do that again, and got 150 or so points added back immediately.

What I learned from watching the numbers change is that violations seem to go in increments of 8. Repeat violations doubled to 16. So you could have 1 violation (8 pts) plus 3 additional violations of the same thing (16 x 3 = 48), before you’d drop below 200, and even then, if you went from 250 to 194, you wouldn’t be at much risk.

I just don’t foresee a situation where the Account Health Assurance would provide any sort of help.

We woke up to 15 one day out of nowhere

Do you recall if any of them showed any ‘impact’ on your score? If not, they can be ignored. Also curious if the violations were on active inventory. I had a slew of inactive, long-ago sold products sitting in my inactive inventory because it had never been worth my time to delete them. I finally bit the bullet and went through and cleared them out, and now rarely get any violations any more.

What mine were mostly caused by was people who - in the good old days :wink: - created pages with random UPC codes, which trigger IP violations when Amazon checks if the UPC belongs to the brand name on the listing.

I 100% agree with @maintak. :arrow_down: :arrow_down:

The only advantage of a higher number is that I have a larger cushion to absorb account dings that lower the score. However, I am working under the assumption that a larger volume of sales and items offered also exposes me to increased risks, and therefore the smaller seller barely hitting the minimum sales would have a commensurately smaller catalog and risk exposure.

It seems that whatever issues threaten our account also lower our score, but not every issue that lowers our score threatens our account.

And not every issue that threatens our account lowers our score either.

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Side comment: the formula did not work for us but that may be due to the number of orders we shipped in the last 180 days.

There is something missing from the formula. Maybe an order limit cap.

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This formula would put us at 468, but we’re at 1,000.

I suspect that there is more to it.

That’s a huge discrepancy. I have seen people run the numbers and come up with different numbers than shown on the dashboard, but always within a handful of points. You are the first person I have seen claiming such a massive difference.

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I think part of the problem I’m having is that, when I set it to 180 days in FBA, it stops at 10,000 orders. I didn’t realize that so I took my 60 days and multiplied it by 3.

So with the actual total sent, it would be 40,635 orders.

That leaves a score of 203.
203*4 = 812
812+200 =1012.
1012 would be the right number.

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