💰 US economy chat ... econochat!

You are losing sight of the broader picture. You said that overqualified people are applying to McD’s. You think they are doing that to further their careers? No. There are not enough jobs. Why are there not enough jobs? The companies are not hiring. Why? The economy is in the dumps. Don’t tell me it’s just AI and automation. Yes, it’s a factor, but that was present last year.

Should companies pick the best people? Sure - to a point. Is it necessary to have Einstein work at McD’s? No. Shouldn’t people who are not as smart but perfectly able to complete the task well also be able to find work?

I know a bag boy with a learning disability. He’s great at his job. Thank God someone was kind enough to hire him.

Given what managers are actually getting paid, some might actually be doing that. Manager pay at McDonald’s can range up to $50,000 and for long termers it can go to $100,000 according to some surveys.

For the most popular Mid-Western gas stations (Kwik Trip) it can be pretty rewarding. From the always reliable “net” :

A Kwik Trip manager’s pay varies by position, but a

Store Manager can expect a total compensation in the range of $70,000 to $90,000 per year, with a median of about $83,000.

And help wanted signs in the stores show the same.

And they both beat the hell out of $12 an hour in a bookstore.

Only a small percentage ever make it to manager or district manager. 25 percent of WalMart store managers are sourced externally, and when you look at length of career, that means nobody would have an opportunity at a single store for a decade plus. Then you couple in the fact that a single WalMart supercenter has an employee base of 200-300, one might as well play the lottery while they are at it. It’s the typical carrot on a stick retail work that keeps the young and capable, at dead end jobs.

The concept of meritocracy is dead, and gladly traded for shareholder returns and executive pay, because everyone is told that “it could be them in the manager chair someday”. The reality is, not everyone gets to be an astronaut, and the system will gladly do a stock buyback instead of dental insurance for employees.

Good luck with that 300$ filling for your kid you cannot afford, because you are already on SNAP working at WalMart, waiting to use kneepads from isle 37 to get the manager job when it opens in 11 more years.

Of course you left out the parts about “immigration, AI and tariff’s” playing a role in that news report, and how its not a loss of jobs, but a hiring hold due to policy and technological uncertainty, which has nothing to do with state policy. The entire article is about “white collar” jobs and has no reference to the conversation about working at MCD as stated by @Amazon_Seller or your assertion about …

You have some very valid points, but IMO, the connect the dots with @Amazon_Seller is missing a few dots in between.

Nope, sight is good. The image does not align with the desired picture, which is completely different.
giphy

I have a friend who saw his insurance premiums rise and overtime kept blaming the current governor of CA. No discussion about WUI risk distribution viz a viz risk pooling, actuarial forecasts - Prop 103, CEA funding, insurance, etc. - when you get into the actual details of things. Policy matters, but it’s a part of the whole.

:grimacing: Well I guess it’s not only anecdotal: Holiday Hiring Slows, Frustrating Job Seekers https://archive.md/D5fR6

A few months ago I posted about Vegas and hospitality staff being laid off. I just looked it up and articles started coming out earlier in the year. All indicators.

If anyone is NOT swamped with business and wants to score some movie tickets, I got this email the other day.

I had tried one delivery a few years ago but am still on their list. If business doesn’t pick up I might hit them up again… :smiling_face_with_sunglasses::smiling_face_with_sunglasses::smiling_face_with_sunglasses::smiling_face_with_sunglasses:

"We are thrilled to announce that Amazon Flex has partnered with AMC TheatresÂŽ to provide delivery partners in the United States with ongoing discounts and savings at over 500 theatres across the country.

To celebrate the holiday season, we are offering delivery partners a special promotion with AMC Theatres. Any delivery partner who completes a delivery block on Friday, November 28, 2025, will receive a promotional link to redeem one free movie ticket at any AMC theatre. 1 Your link will be sent to your email within 10 days and must be redeemed by December 31, 2025. Terms and conditions apply. 2

Additionally, as part of the Amazon Flex Rewards program, you can save up to 30% on AMC TheatresÂŽ Exchange Tickets for any showtime, plus discounts on popcorn, snacks, and drinks. Visit the Amazon Flex blog for more information.

Thank you for delivering with Amazon Flex.

There may be some grade inflation coming out of Harvard and other Ivy schools. I also am not very surprised that the people that fought tooth and nail all though high school to maintain 4.0+ GPA, only to get into college, continue to gain high marks in college.
Me, my GPA dropped nearly a point from HS graduation to college graduation. I fully admit I didn’t care if I got a C in a class I didn’t care about :laughing:

Oh, and to stay on topic. I have a 25 year old who has been looking for any kind of work for 3 months and hasn’t gotten a call back. His car is too old for Uber, or he’d consider it.

Your kid is not alone. I know many kids in that position who’ve been many months without a jojb after graduation.

I wouldn’t use Vegas as the canary in the coal mine for the overall economy. I went there last year and it’s very different from what it used to be unless you don’t step foot outside the casinos. The entire strip smells like it just lit up a big J and blew it in your face. I’ll give them props for trying to make it more family friendly with entertainment and shows but you just can’t escape what made Vegas Vegas.

And THIS might be noteworthy if the broader economic difficulties get even worse –
“Credit card balances alone jumped $24 billion, reaching an all-time high, while the share of balances in serious delinquency—90 days past due—climbed to a nearly financial-crash level of 7.1 percent.”

I would, because this family-friendly atmosphere didn’t happen overnight (it’s been family-friendly for ages), but the drop off in attendance has, according to people I know who have business there.

Vegas may or may not be a dump but the fact remained that it was/is a major hub for travel internationally and domestically. Both have fallen drastically because travel restrictions for international travelers coming to the US and rising costs. There are multiple articles discussing the data. When people stop going and spending it is a very direct data point on how the overall economy is doing especially when coupled with other data points like lay offs, inflation, credit risk etc

Next thing you know, someone will accuse our leader of promoting a NEW PURITANISM, and many of us will laugh our behinds off over that the depiction of him as any sort if Puritan, given his personal history. And his family tree,

And the fact that he can’t reference a single part of his favorite book. But sure :slight_smile:

Student loan defaults, I can write off as “balancing” after having pauses ended. But this, not so easy.

“Many are prime borrowers with high credit scores and no prior history of default,” he told Newsweek , and observed the surprising transition of auto loans from being considered among the safest credit products to now being seen as the riskiest.

So it’s not “the usual suspects” who are deficient and defaulting.

:grimacing: And that’s what concerns me about consumer spending for the 2025 holidays. Will routine Q4 shoppers simply continue to accrue debt just to have a “normal” holiday, or will they pull back on gifting, getaways, and treats in recognition of their worsening broader financial situations?

OMG, people are not paying their utility bills!

https://wapo.st/3Xb0mXI

This happens every year to varying degrees which is why the story says " Although delinquent payments may not lead to immediate disconnections — more than 40 states have rules against turning off customers’ power during the winter or in extreme cold weather, for example…".

It is just getting worse much earlier in the year this year. "“Service termination remains a last resort,” he said.

Still, the utility has reported 111,000 residential power shutoffs so far this year, up from 30,000 in all of 2024"

I used to tell my commodity traders about a saying – ‘may you live in interesting times’ – because speculators needed volatility (interesting times) to make money. I NEVER told them that it is/was reportedly an ancient Chinese CURSE which they say now is not the case.

Buckle up and wear prtctive gear. It’s going to be a rough ride.

National Parks are to get America First pricing (sort of?). Non-residents to be charged a fee hike but the PR says this change “…more affordable…” - My understanding is the current rates are the same for everyone and that it is only being raised for non-residents - so Americans aren’t saving. Sounds about right.

I intentionally left out two or three articles that highlighted the rise as a hike on non-Americans (which it is) lest I offend folks’ lord and savior.

PS - Yes, the new passes will have that precise picture.