Great advice we ALL should heed (hint, hint). If by āmarketsā youāre referring to the stock market, itās never been a great indicator of actual economic health or consumer confidence. Walking around and talking to people tells the real story, as do the posts about āno salesā going up with ever growing frequency on the NSFE. Inflation is killing people, even if the worst of it might somehow miraculously be behind us, itās already raised the prices on everything, destroying discretionary spending for all but the affluent. This is reality, the only politics is when this reality gets spun into something resembling a healthy economy.
Speaking of market reaction -
The prices of crude oil dropped today because of potential slowing of demand foretold by the jobs deficit.
We have many markets, including the supermarket which affect our lives.
But none more acutely than the supermarket.
Agree completely, and precisely my point.
Every economic indicator is just one puzzle piece of a Hogwarts stairs-like puzzle and should be interpreted with caution and in conjunction with other data from triangulated reliable sources.
Headlines and tweets are not the economy.
Great point about not investing too much faith in economic reports; it appears that in addition to the grossly inflated employment numbers which were corrected recently, the actual employment numbers have been significantly bolstered by government hiring. Sure, a job is a job, but the paychecks for government workers come out of the pockets of private-sector workers, further hampering economic growth.
Well, Powell has taken these jobs numbers and decided interest rates will come down.
The stock market likes that, though not as much as they did at todayās opening.
The dollar is nearing its weakest level in more than two years. We will be seeing higher prices on imported goods if this holds.
I see lots of potential tactical moves to be taken, but no obvious strategy.
I need to speak to the team managing my investments to see what strategy changes they are thinking of
My if then else thinking has been overwhelmed.
I donāt take much faith in āindicatorsā I look around.
How many empty store fronts are there. How many āwe are closing X locationsā notifications are there.
To me, the biggest indicator is the massive number of food oriented places closing. Some that have been around for decades are stating they just canāt keep up with inflation.
This is huge because food price increases hit everyone. This is why people are not opening their wallets. When your weekly food bill is up over 100% you donāt have that money to spend. That is what the problem is, Main street, not Wall street.
That analogy is based on if nothing else was happening at the same time. Since the population is growing, the percentage of those seeking to curb their appetites would have to out pace the population growth to see this type of drop in food demand. In addition, the world has populations that live in famine which also effects food demand.
When COVID emptied that stores shelves, supply and demand created inflationary prices as the entire food supply chain was disrupted. If nothing disrupts the supply chain and distribution in the next couple of years, then the pricing will continue to stabilize and the inflationary pressure will continue to be minimized.
War and oil pricing will also continue to be factors in inflation and food demand.
In our circle, we know of only one person who has turned to the new drugs to help curb her appetite and she is a diabetic ā¦ so we applaud her effort and others like her.
Was meant more of a joke and a jab at americaās obesity problem.
The problems in the economy run deep and arenāt things that are easily resolved.
How little do we know about how many things which influence our lives?
We have been in unprecedented economic times from a monetary policy perspective since the Fedās response to the 2008 recession.
Monetary policy is not political, it is decided by the Fed and argued about by economists, since although economics is nicknamed the dismal science, it is not a science.
Economists have warned of the likely negative results of the selected monetary policy since at least 2008.
I am not going to argue about the causes of the 2008 recession, because that would be a political argument.
I am not even going to argue about the causes of this round of inflation because that is a function of fiscal policy which is political.
Every time we are in unique economic circumstances, economists propose changes to the methods used to apply terms like recession and depression.
The accepted definition of a recession requires the economy to have stopped growing for 6 months. This often means that the response to the problems causing a recession are delayed for 6 months.
There are a variety of solutions which have been proposed in the past for determining whether we are in a recession, which do not have a 6 month delay. They are old enough that they can be evaluated based on past data and it is inevitable that eventually one of them will replace the current definition. I cannot say when or which, I lack the tolerance of boredom to be an economist.
Assuming that only an economist can see the state of the economy, requires the willful suspension of disbelief, or utter stupidity. I will not attempt to apply my personal opinion to which is influencing who.
We continue to be seeing other than good times. And the proposed solutions to what we see are likely to be unpredictable as to their success.
Batten the hatches, mateys.
Add to the Dollar General results
The situation at Big Lots
https://www.foxbusiness.com/retail/big-lots-weighing-possibility-bankruptcy-filing-sales-dwindle
Itās a little bit odd, because usually when people tighten their belts (on their wallets, not their waists), discounters do well as people trade down to them to save money.
But this year thereās been struggles among all the discount retail chains.
A shoot from the hip explanation.
These low end chains are highly dependent on product from China. Prices are low due to the Chinese economic problems but shipping costs are up due to fuel costs and fewer ships being in operation.
Dollar General has been living under a Walmart price umbrella, and benefiting from smaller low overhead stores closer to many rural buyers.
Big Lots has been contracting for years. Their inventory is almost all Chinese product which has no recognizable brand. No one knows if it is a good deal or good product when it is in that store.
Good point, it may also be competition from the likes of temu. Why buy it from a dollar store when you can pay 50 cents on the dollar to get it directly from china?
Although many of us agree that the stock market is not necessarily reflective of the real economy.
Today, if we are to believe the talking heads, the market has taken a tumble because of weakness in the manufacturing sector and also in the construction sector.
And even more people seem to agree that weakness in those sectors is often a sign of weakness in the economy.
How long do you think it will take until the market is higher than it closes at this afternoon?
This behavior does not help, there are probably many more instances of this type affecting consumers financially. I believe the COVID opportunity to raise prices, initially due to supply chains, still haunts us.
Y E P . And just to emphasize that this activity exploited inflation at consumersā expense and builds distrust of all retailersā¦
There is an interesting inconsistency in the Q&A. The Kroger price is compared to the Walmart price among others.
The FTC opposition to the Albertson merger specifically excludes treating Walmart as competition to the combined chains.
There are no honest lawyers. And maybe not any honest supermarket execs.
