💰 US economy chat ... econochat!

E-commerce Business Management
150

The real problem (in my opinion) is that the GOVERNMENT has no clue about it as well.

This will border on political commentary so may get removed, but it cuts across ALL lines.

During COVID there were Congressional hearings about sanctioning China and BOTH parties were oblivious to the fact that this is truly a national security issue.

When these clowns said that we COULDN’T sanction China because of dependency due to the level of our critical drug supplies, ingredients, masks, etc. that came from there it was irresponsible to NOT put in some controls on critical items. But nothing happened!

It is essential that limits on the % of ‘mission critical’ items of all types that can be imported. Require government purchases of every item that is vital to supporting life, national defense, and so on to come from US factories regardless of the prices. The only alternatives could/would be long term allies (a short list of dependable ones at this time).

151

A slight tinfoil hat thought I had today.

If it’s in the news all these stores are loosing money then it “looks bad” and it means people are not spending money because the economy is so bad. Makes us look weak, etc.

These boycotts now provide the “solution” to sales are down. Sales are not down because “economy bad” they are down to “boycotts” as soon as boycotts are over sales will “go back up” (but they won’t because you can coat a turd in sugar but it’s still a turd). The economy is bad all these stores are loosing money and the only way for stores to make money is for individuals to have money…so how do we get those individuals money without “inflation”? War I guess :woman_shrugging::woman_facepalming:. So I guess my thought is are these boycotts even real? I find it funny that target was just talking about lower sales being down and boom now suddenly there is this whole 40 day target boycott supposedly happening. :laughing:

152

I’m interested in what comes of that, if you’re willing to share (even if in PM). We’re starting to see email signatures indicating tariff charges will be passed on from our RM providers.

153

First round (10%) was being eaten 50% by the suppliers. This second 10% isn’t being eaten at all.

That was info I had before Expo. Will revert with any Expo related info next week.

As you probably know, the RM’s in most supplements are a fraction of the cost of the product but we are already seeing opportunistic price increases in the market through our drug channel connections.

A 20% tariff on the RM costs of our products equates to ~3% cost increase. But brands / some CMOs are announcing increases (costs / SRP’s) that nearly match the tariffs.

Pretty shady but that’s what businesses do. More inflation, here we come, although supplements didn’t see any inflation the last 4 years that I have seen.

ETA - on those SRP increases… We are hearing they are trying to do this in a week or 2 which really is shameful. Like they only had a week on hand of inventory. Nonsense. The industry averages a supply chain of 3 turns a year and most RM’s are bought 4-6 months in advance for safety since you can use a RM that is set to expire in a day today, and get the full stated shelf life out of the finished good as long as it tests as such.

154

and herein lays the problem with inflation.

Those old enough have experienced it here in the US as I, or have travelled the world to know its effects.

Business once burned, will not be again. And add to that, yes the opportunistics that you describe as well.

When inflation occurs, are you in front of the curve, and how do you know, or behind, and lose your ■■■.

Add to it all these tariffs, and businesses NOW do not know what is up or down.

20% Tariffs now, but 30% or 40% on April 2, or more, or less, or 0%???

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Trumps Tariffs
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156

But even this is already outdated because Auto industry got an exemption this morning and Mexico was given an additional 30 days.

157

Yea, according to Sheinbaum, they had a perfect phone call today.

This tariff whiplash needs to stop. Either do it or don’t do it. Economic uncertainty is not something to play around with unless your intention is to tank the markets to buy low and change your mind…

ETA - I wasn’t being serious about that “unless”. This whole thing is very strange.

158

This.

ALL DAY THIS

159

I gotta be honest… This might be a little political but I don’t think so.

All of this BS seems to be aimed at forcing lower interest rates because the FED is one thing he can’t control and he wants the rates cut.

So force 300K people to unemployment by govt job cuts, screw around with tariffs, mess everything else up, and Powell will have no other choice.

160

Agree. The uncertainty for businesses and consumers is counterproductive and does create questions around what the actual goal is. We aren’t chess pieces.

161

No kidding. Real life isn’t a game of cards

162

And JUST NOW Canada is delayed.

The games being played right now…

163

Dow did enter “correction” territory today…

I’m sure the market will be way up tomorrow.

164

Maybe not, the market does not like indecision.

165

This is not tolerable / sustainable… And yes… I do need to charge my phone

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166

I think that half this back and forth is market manipulation and nothing else.

167

This strategy is being used in Turkey for the last 10 years, or slightly more. The president or one of his puppets makes a mind-blowing announcement: the exchange rates, markets fluctuate tremendously for a few days/weeks and some people/groups (hint: close to the ruling party) are somehow (!) so lucky to know/predict everything and they sell at top, buy at bottom etc. Rinse and repeat.

This is one easy way of making your supporters rich and obedient to you. In the mean time the hard working, well-educated and mostly (naturally) opposing upper-middle class fights for its existence.

168

Essentially, you’re describing how power works thematically…rarely will you come by a figure who is a true believer in the ideals and morals they (pretend) to stand for. And even if those exist, they get taken out my everyone else in power.

169

Once upon a time, the stock market reflected the state of the economy.

The value of a stock reflected “the fundamentals of a company” and its expected performance in a modest period of time. Price earnings multiples were low, even for high growth companies.

The term investor usually meant someone who bought stock and held it.

The term investor has changes its meaning today when the bulk of the trades are by professional speculators attempting to make a zero sum profit based on short term trading. Multiples may require a century for company earnings to equal what is paid for the stock.

Without making moral judgements, the impact is most obvious in volatility. Traders have to trade. If there is little important news, they will trade based on how other traders are trading, They will find something to trade whether the trade is based on the economy or not. Not any more rational than the criticized meme stocks.

The effects of the tariffs have greater effect on the economy than many other factors, but that only directly effects those who make or buy the products.

The described experience in how much of the RM tariffs are passed through to the manufacturers is, in part a result of the real economies of the world.

The Chinese are less able to absorb the costs of the tariffs because their economy is in the toilet, and no one know the real numbers other than the CCP.

Our economy has some real numbers and has had some fake numbers too, but our government has published revisions repeatedly.

The Chinese had decided years ago that their needs were not being served by selling low priced products. There are too many other countries who can compete on price. Their quest was to become dominant in more advanced and valuable products. Their internal economic difficulties have left them more dependent on cheap crap than their planners envisioned.

I have strong doubts that the tariffs will bring manufacturing and mining and other industries back to the US but part of what caused it to leave was American investment capital and capitalists who forced investment elsewhere. It also included well meaning, economically ignorant advocates and activists. So maybe, things can improve due to shifts in politcal winds.